Scenarios, Modelling and Policy
Edited by K. N. Ninan
Chapter 5: The future value of ecosystem services: global scenarios and national implications
The authors estimated the future value of ecosystem services in monetary units for four alternative global land use and management scenarios based on the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) scenarios to the year 2050. They used previous estimates of the per biome values of ecosystem services in 2011 as the basis for comparison. They then mapped projected land-use for 16 biomes at 1 km2 resolution globally for each scenario. This, combined with differences in land management for each scenario, created estimates of global ecosystem services values that also allowed for examinations of individual countries. Results show that under different scenarios the global value of ecosystem services can decline by $51 trillion/yr or increase by US$30 trillion/yr. In addition to the global values, the chapter reports totals for all countries and maps for a few example countries. Results show that adopting a set of policies similar to those required to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals would greatly enhance ecosystem services, human wellbeing and sustainability.
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