Environmental Assessments
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Environmental Assessments

Scenarios, Modelling and Policy

Edited by K. N. Ninan

In this authoritative book, leading international experts examine the use of scenario analyses and modelling in environmental assessments. Including chapters with a global or regional focus as well as in-depth case studies from Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North and South America, contributors analyse the latest research on the applications of scenarios and models and explore the opportunities and challenges in using them for policy relevant research and action.
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Chapter 5: The future value of ecosystem services: global scenarios and national implications

Ida Kubiszewski, Robert Costanza, Sharolyn Anderson and Paul Sutton

Abstract

The authors estimated the future value of ecosystem services in monetary units for four alternative global land use and management scenarios based on the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) scenarios to the year 2050. They used previous estimates of the per biome values of ecosystem services in 2011 as the basis for comparison. They then mapped projected land-use for 16 biomes at 1 km2 resolution globally for each scenario. This, combined with differences in land management for each scenario, created estimates of global ecosystem services values that also allowed for examinations of individual countries. Results show that under different scenarios the global value of ecosystem services can decline by $51 trillion/yr or increase by US$30 trillion/yr. In addition to the global values, the chapter reports totals for all countries and maps for a few example countries. Results show that adopting a set of policies similar to those required to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals would greatly enhance ecosystem services, human wellbeing and sustainability.

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