World Economic Performance
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World Economic Performance

Past, Present and Future

Edited by D. S.P. Rao and Bart van Ark

World economic performance over the last 50 years has been spectacular. The postwar period has witnessed impressive growth rates in Western Europe and Japan, and in recent times China and India. This new book discusses these issues and tackles topical questions such as; what are the socio-economic and institutional factors that have contributed to this impressive performance? Will China and India continue to grow at the same rate over the next two decades? What are the prospects for Japan, the US and other advanced economies? The book brings together contributions by eminent scholars including the late Angus Maddison, Professors Justin Lin, Bob Gordon, Ross Garnaut, Bart van Ark and others to provide answers to these fascinating questions. The chapters analyse the economic performance of selected countries including China, India, Japan, Indonesia and the US, as well as Western Europe, Latin America and developing countries as a group. The time period of the study is from 1850 to the present and includes forecasts to 2030.
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Chapter 5: Analysis of Russian Performance since 1990 and Future Outlook


This chapter reviews the anatomy of Russia’s economic performance 1991– 2005 decomposing GDP statistical data into principal utilization components. It accounts for the long depression of 1991–1998 and the subsequent economic expansion of 1999–2005. Dependency on fuel and metals exports is traced to the practical disappearance of government defence expenditure and sharp decline in capital investment. The deceleration inertia in the economy is explained by the persistent narrowness of the domestic market caused by the combination of low wages and the skewed distribution of gross profit. The average annual growth rate is decomposed into principal production factors. This analysis is used as a basis for determining future growth for 2004–2015 and subsequently for 2016–2030. Projected growth in Russia’s GDP is compared with projected data for 14 other nations and world GDP. In this projection Russia moves from its current tenth place in the world to fifth place in 2030 after China, USA, India, and Japan. 2.2 PERFORMANCE IN 1991–2005 From the standpoint of Russian economic dynamics, two periods may be clearly distinguished: (i) the overall decline of production in 1992–1998, with a short pause in the stagnation year of 1997; and (ii) the overall growth of production, starting in 1999.

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