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Export-led growth vs growth-led exports: what matters for the Brazilian growth experience after trade liberalization?*

Ricardo Azevedo Araujo, Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira and Cristiane Soares

Keywords: Export-led growth; growth-led exports; cumulative causation; Granger causality test

In this paper, we study the Brazilian growth experience after trade liberalization by testing both the export-led growth (ELG) and the growth-led exports (GLE) hypotheses through econometric tests between exports and gross domestic output (GDP). Although the paper provides further evidence that after openness neither ELG nor GLE hypotheses can satisfactorily explain the Brazilian growth experience, when disaggregated data is adopted it is possible to identify some sectors such as intermediate goods, commodities, and manufactured products whose performance is strongly correlated with real GDP. These results suggest that a disaggregated approach enhances our understanding of the Brazilian growth experience after trade liberalization.

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